When Baker Mayfield, quarterback of Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes the field at Ford Field on Monday night, DFS owners are already penciling in a massive upside play. The week‑7 Monday Night Football doubleheader – the first primetime slate of the 2025 NFL season – pits the Buccaneers (4‑2) against the Detroit Lions (5‑1) at 8:00 PM ET, followed by the Seattle Seahawks (3‑3) vs. Houston Texans (3‑3) at 10:15 PM ET in Seattle.
Why This Doubleheader Matters
Both contests are projected to exceed the 50‑point line, but the first game carries extra weight for fantasy owners. The Lions entered the night as three‑point favorites with a 5.5‑point spread, yet their secondary ranks a dismal 28th against the pass. Combine that with a Buccaneers defense that ranks third in rush yards allowed, and you have a classic shoot‑out waiting to happen.
Sports Illustrated’s fantasy guru Daniel Schneemann warned, “If you’re looking for a high‑variance stack, Mayfield and the rookie slot threat are the combo that could flip the entire slate.” The advice comes as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, reportedly crafted a tailored package for the third‑year wideout.
Matchup Breakdown: Buccaneers vs Lions
The Lions’ home‑field advantage is real – they average 32.4 points at Ford Field versus just 21.7 on the road. Quarterback Jared Goff (born October 14, 1994) will rely on his arm, but he faces a secondary that has surrendered the fifth‑most fantasy points to opposing receivers all season.
On the Bucs side, Mayfield (born April 14, 1995) has been a top‑12 fantasy QB in five of his first six games this year, posting a 14.7 PPR projection for the night. He’ll have the benefit of a deep receiving corps: seven‑time Pro Bowler Mike Evans finally cleared a lingering hamstring, veteran Chris Godwin is back in the rotation, and the breakout candidate is rookie Tez Johnson. Johnson (born October 12, 2001) flashed speed at the Panini Rookie Premiere event and has already become a favorite target in the slot.
“The Lions will have to respect the Bucs’ secondary‑focused packages,” Coen told reporters on Friday. “If we can get Tez open in the short‑to‑intermediate zone, the defense can’t chase the ball down fast enough.”
Defensively, Detroit’s secondary is missing key cornerbacks, which has inflated their red‑zone touchdown rate to 28.6%. The Buccaneers have capitalized on similar situations before, turning short passes into big gains late in the fourth quarter.
Seahawks vs Texans: Secondary Considerations
The second game is more of a “wait‑and‑see” affair. Seattle’s Sam Darnold (born July 5, 1997) will test a Texans defense coordinated by veteran Lance Thompson. Houston’s rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud (born October 9, 2001) brings a fresh passing attack that could keep the Seahawks’ defense honest.
DFS value in this matchup hinges on the wideout Jaxson Smith‑Njigba and running back Kenneth Walker III. Both have middling ownership on FanDuel, but a late‑game scramble could push them into the top‑10 pool.
DFS Strategy: Stacking Mayfield and Johnson
The core of the advice from Schneemann’s Sports Illustrated piece is a classic “stack” – pairing the quarterback with a low‑owned, high‑ceiling receiver. On FanDuel’s $50‑entry tournaments, Mayfield’s projected 14.7 PPR points make him a roster anchor, while Johnson’s projected 7.2 PPR points and sub‑5% ownership give you the upside you need to outrank the field.
Here’s a quick template that has been working for the past two weeks:
- QB: Baker Mayfield
- WR1: Tez Johnson (target ceiling: 12 pts)
- WR2: Mike Evans (floor: 9 pts, ceiling: 18 pts)
- Flex: Chris Godwin or a high‑upside RB like Rashaad Cunningham
- Defense: Detroit Lions (projected 9 pts)
Because the Lions’ secondary will be chasing routes, any short‑pass boom is likely to generate touchdowns. The stack also helps you ride the “boom‑or‑bust” nature of the game – if Mayfield throws two TDs and Johnson snags one, you’re already ahead of the average roster.
Looking Ahead: Playoff Implications
Both the Buccaneers and Lions are locked in a tight NFC race. A win for Tampa Bay would push them to 5‑2, keeping them within a game of the division-leading Dallas Cowboys. Detroit, meanwhile, hopes to protect its third‑place standing and keep the wildcard door open.
Seattle and Houston are fighting for survival in the AFC, but the real fantasy story will be how the late‑night blowout (or lack‑thereof) influences player salaries on the next day’s lineups. As Schnemann notes, “If the Bucs‑Lions game turns into a 38‑35 shootout, we’ll see a cascade of salary spikes for slot receivers and tight ends across the board.”
Frequently Asked Questions
How does stacking Mayfield with Johnson boost my DFS odds?
The stack links two low‑ownership players whose success is correlated. If Mayfield throws a touchdown to Johnson, both players earn points simultaneously, creating a multiplicative effect that can vault a mid‑range lineup into the top‑10.
What defensive weaknesses does Detroit have that benefit Tampa Bay?
The Lions are missing several starting cornerbacks, which has dropped their pass‑coverage rating to 28th in the league. Their red‑zone touchdown rate sits at 28.6%, meaning any short pass into the end zone is likely to be a scoring play for the Bucs.
Is the Seahawks‑Texans game worth a stack?
The matchup is more balanced, so traditional QB‑WR stacks carry less upside. Most DFS experts recommend targeting high‑ownership players like Jaxson Smith‑Njigba instead of a risky stack.
What timeline should I watch for to adjust my roster?
Pay attention to the first 15 minutes – if Mayfield hits two early completions to Johnson, it’s a good sign to lock in the stack. Late‑game scoring bursts, especially after the two‑minute warning, often decide the final point totals.
How might this doubleheader affect next‑week’s fantasy lineups?
A high‑scoring Buccaneers‑Lions game will inflate the price of slot receivers and pass‑catching tight ends league‑wide. Expect the next week’s salaries for players like Dalton Kincaid and Jordan Addison to rise sharply.